You want a rebuke to the "never-ending woes of commercial and residential real estate mortgage bonds"? You get one every day in this market, and today is no different. Look at what is up big today: Genworth (NYSE: GNW) (Cramer's Take), Lincoln National (NYSE: LNC) (Cramer's Take), Wyndham (NYSE: WYN) (Cramer's Take), Regions Financial (NYSE: RF) (Cramer's Take) and Zions (NASDAQ: ZION) (Cramer's Take). Each in its own way needs the residential or commercial real estate markets to be robust to thrive, and if the myriad articles I read about the horrible state of the mortgage bond market and the dim commercial real estate prospects were true, why would you be making money in Wyndham, a gigantic timeshare company? How could Regions and Zions be rallying? They are among the worst of the worst; unless you consider Genworth and Lincoln National, which are supposed to be roadkill because of all of their mortgage bonds.
Cramer on BloggingStocks: Warning: The financial media can be hazardous to your portfolio
You want a rebuke to the "never-ending woes of commercial and residential real estate mortgage bonds"? You get one every day in this market, and today is no different. Look at what is up big today: Genworth (NYSE: GNW) (Cramer's Take), Lincoln National (NYSE: LNC) (Cramer's Take), Wyndham (NYSE: WYN) (Cramer's Take), Regions Financial (NYSE: RF) (Cramer's Take) and Zions (NASDAQ: ZION) (Cramer's Take). Each in its own way needs the residential or commercial real estate markets to be robust to thrive, and if the myriad articles I read about the horrible state of the mortgage bond market and the dim commercial real estate prospects were true, why would you be making money in Wyndham, a gigantic timeshare company? How could Regions and Zions be rallying? They are among the worst of the worst; unless you consider Genworth and Lincoln National, which are supposed to be roadkill because of all of their mortgage bonds.
Closing Bell: A quiet day that didn't look quiet (BRK.A, BBI, SLM, SIRI, SWI, STT)
Despite us being on the heels of the big Russell indexes changing and despite the quarter-end being a day away, this was a boring day. A study showed a small decrease in online job advertisements, but that was the only item on the economic front. Oil traded higher and bond yields came down as traders are voting for more stability the rest of the year there. Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:
Dow 8,531.19 +92.80 (1.10%)
S&P 500 927.18 +8.28 (0.90%)
Nasdaq 1,843.34 +5.12 (0.28%)
Top Analyst Calls
Continue reading Closing Bell: A quiet day that didn't look quiet (BRK.A, BBI, SLM, SIRI, SWI, STT)
Closing Bell: A win that felt too quiet (BRK-A, BAC, CCL, SNDK, SLM, WLP)
Today was one of those low news flow days where you never had any real solid feel for where the market would close until the very end of the session. We have seen too many rallies dashed by closing imbalances at the end of the day when there was thin volume. Some Philly Fed data helped hold the market, and that was on the heels of the largest drop in continuing jobless claims since 2001. Some of the agriculture stocks staged a small comeback after yesterday's huge losses.
Here were the unofficial closing bell levels:
Dow 8,554.77 +57.59 (0.68%)
S&P 500 918.34 +7.63 (0.84%)
Nasdaq 1,807.72 -0.34 (-0.02%)
Top Analyst Upgrades
Top Analyst Downgrades
Continue reading Closing Bell: A win that felt too quiet (BRK-A, BAC, CCL, SNDK, SLM, WLP)
Closing Bell: From caution to almost cheers (GOOG, AAPL, SLM, CSCO, MCD)
Today was one of those strange days where we were weak all day, and the buy programs came on strong in the last 45 minutes of the day. Instead of being down over 100 points on the DJIA for much of the day, the market's unofficial close was up. Here are the unofficial closing bell levels:
Dow 8,764.49 +1.36 (0.02%)
S&P 500 939.14 -0.95 (-0.10%)
Nasdaq 1,842.40 -7.02 (-0.38%)
Top 10 Analyst Calls
Continue reading Closing Bell: From caution to almost cheers (GOOG, AAPL, SLM, CSCO, MCD)
Cramer on BloggingStocks: The next run is on the insurers
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says he doesn't want to make a move until he sees the action. We aren't oversold enough anymore, and we are up too much. Meanwhile, the next run is on the insurers, as we can tell from the erratic nature of the way that group is trading.
Oh, and what's the deal with Sallie Mae (NYSE: SLM) (Cramer's Take)?
There's not a lot of respite here in part, again, because of Lehman and the default of so much Washington Mutual paper.
We just aren't ready for what is happening yet, and we keep getting surprised about where the paper is. The rescue bill will help, but the pork attachments are so horrible that I believe, ex-FDIC, they have made it tougher to pass, not easier.
Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: The next run is on the insurers
Option Update: General Electric volatility stays elevated after capital raise
General Electric (NYSE: GE) is recently trading at $22.95 in pre-open trading, below its close of $24.50. GE is expected to report Q3 EPS on October 10. GE October option implied volatility is at 69, November is at 65; above its 26-week average of 31 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
SLM (NYSE: SLM), engaged in education finance, closed at $8.35. SLM October 7.5 straddle is priced at $4.25, November 7.5 straddle is priced at $5. SLM over all option implied volatility of 164 is above its 26-week average of 80 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
Finally, BCE's buyout is a real deal
This week, we've seen two major buyout deals come undone: the $6.1 transaction for Penn National Gaming Inc. (NASDAQ: PENN) and TPG's play for Bradford & Bingley. In fact, according to FactSet Research, about 20% of leveraged buyouts (LBOs) since mid-2007 have been terminated.
Despite all this, some deals are getting done. Perhaps the most notable is the BCE (NYSE: BCE) LBO. BCE has reached an agreement with its private equity sponsors and banks to close its $51 billion LBO. This will represent the biggest buyout in history.
Now, there are some wrinkles. The closing date will be extended to December and there will not be any dividend payments for the rest of the year. The break-up fee was also upped from $1 billion to $1.2 billion.
Yet, the fact is that the price tag will remain unchanged (at $42 per share). No doubt, this is a big feat, especially in light of the credit crunch.
Apparently, there was much discussion about renegotiating the price. Then again, the prospects of massive litigation were daunting, as we have seen in a variety of other deals such as with Clear Channel, SLM (NYSE: SLM) and Huntsman Corp. (NYSE: HUN).
Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements
. He also operates MergerBook.com.
Sallie Mae (SLM): At the head of the class
"Since the market started its downturn early this year, I have avoided all financial stocks and resisted the temptation of value plays," says Dave Dyer.
In his Dave Dyer's Newsletter, he explains, "Well, it is now time to violate both of those prohibitions at once." Here, he looks at a new buy for SLM Corporation (NYSE: SLM), commonly known as Sallie Mae, the nation's largest provider of college loans and savings programs."
"There must be some financial areas that have predictable, growing demand, willing customers who actually have low default rates, and securitization processes that do not involve the type of financial engineering that is only intended to hide risk.
"Well, there is such an area, and it even involves a product that it makes sense to finance since it will actually increase in value over time. I'm talking about student loans.
Analyst upgrades: CRBC, HES, STEL, PFBC, AG, SLM and SAFM
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Citizens Republic Bancorp, Hess Corp and Sanderson Farms were today's noteworthy upgrades:- Keefe Bruyette upgraded shares of Citizens Republic Bancorp (NASDAQ: CRBC) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation following yesterday's sell-off, which they attribute in part to its removal from the Dow Jones Select Dividend Index. Shares were also raised to OUtperform from Perform at Oppenheimer following the sell-off.
- Goldman upgraded Hess (NYSE: HES) to Buy from Neutral citing the company's leverage to higher oil prices. The firm said oil is likely to hit $150-$200/bbl in the next 6-24 months.
- Stephens upgraded shares of Sanderson Farms (NASDAQ: SAFM) to Overweight from Equal Weight as they expect industry fundamentals to improve in FY09.
Closing bell: Mixed day after major gain
- DJIA 12,622.93 (+3.66; +0.03%)
- NASDAQ 2,341.83 (-8.28; -0.35%)
- S&P500 1,365.41 (+0.70; +0.05%)
- 10YR-TBOND 3.729% (+0.033)
- 52-WEEK LOWS
- TOP 10 ANALYST CALLS
Analyst downgrades: SLM, Tempur Pedic, ITT
MOST NOTEWORTHY: SLM Corp, Tempur Pedic and ITT Corp were today's noteworthy downgrades:
- Morgan Stanley downgraded SLM Corp. (NYSE: SLM) to Underweight from Equal Weight citing the impact on earnings from reduced government subsidies and disrupted capital markets.
- Tempur Pedic (NYSE: TPX) was cut to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan citing the consumer slowdown and increased competition.
- Credit Suisse downgraded ITT Corp. (NYSE: ITT) to Neutral from Outperform citing the surprised management changes announced last night.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Early analyst calls (MO) (SLM)
JP Morgan downgraded Altria (NYSE:MO) from "overweight" to "neutral" according to Briefing.com. The news service also reports that Morgan Stanley downgraded SLM (NYSE:SLM) to "underweight" from "equal weight."
Lehman Bros. started coverage of NutriSystem (NASDAQ:NTRI) with an "underweight" rating, according to the AP.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Analyst upgrades: Schering-Plough, Emergency Medical Services, SLM Corp.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Schering-Plough, Emergency Medical Services and SLM Corp were today's noteworthy upgrades:- Banc of America upgraded shares of Schering-Plough (NYSE: SGP) to Buy from Neutral on valuation, as they believe current levels already reflect significant cuts to the company's cholesterol franchise from ENHANCE.
- JP Morgan upgraded shares of Emergency Medical Services (NYSE: EMS) to Overweight from Neutral following the company's Q4 results.
- Friedman Billings upgraded shares of SLM Corp. (NYSE: SLM) to Outperform from Market Perform and raised their target to $25 from $23 to reflect the company's strengthened capital position, diversified sources of income, and attractive valuation.
- JP Morgan added Molson Coors (NYSE: TAP) to its Focus List.
- Citigroup raised Dynegy (NYSE: DYN) to Buy from Hold.
- Societe Generale upgraded Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS) to Hold from Sell.
Early analyst calls: MS, SGP, SLM ...
Oppenheimer downgraded Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) to "perform" from "outperform" and also knocked down Q1 estimates according to the AP.
Citigroup upgraded Dynergy (NYSE: DYN) from "hold" to "buy," according to Briefing.com. The news service also said that Bank of America upgraded Schering-Plough (NYSE: SGP) to "buy" from "neutral."
SLM (NYSE: SLM) was raised to "outperform" at FBR, according to 24/7 Wall St.
Students loan rates could rise as credit crunch hits student loan-backed bonds
Securities tied to student loans have failed to generate investors' interest, leaving roughly $3 billion in a sort of limbo, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday (subscription required).
Typically, the banks involved in the deal -- in this case Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), J. P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and Citigroup (NYSE: C) -- would step in to buy the securities when demand is weak. However, because the major banks are already flush with loans and bonds they're trying to get rid of, they have been allowing the auctions to fail, The Journal reported.
Student loan manager Sallie Mae (NYSE: SLM) fell 42 cents to $19.73 on the news in Tuesday morning trading.
Bond demand is weak
The auction process is similar to those held for municipal bonds, corporate debt and other debt securities. However, Wall Street is not obligated to step in and buy student loan-backed securities when demand is weak.
Continue reading Students loan rates could rise as credit crunch hits student loan-backed bonds










